“The cumulative probability gives 50% chance for WBE (if it ever arrives) before 2059, with the 25% percentile in 2047 and the 75% percentile in 2074. WBE before 2030 looks very unlikely and only 10% likely before 2040.”
Good to see more WBE forecasting models produced. Robin Hanson and Anders Sandberg engage on the statistical difficulties of forecasting with sigmoid models. Fun read for stats geeks, forecasting experts, and those of us who care about the future of machine intelligence.
One Response to “Whole Brain Emulation Forecast”
March 27
Ryan Del MundoWhat will they want to eat, that’s what I wanna know!